I Prublema put i Paki
In the continuing debate over how to stop mass killings in the United States, Australia has become a familiar touchstone.
President Obama has cited the country’s gun laws as a model for the United States, calling Australia a nation “like ours.” On the campaign trail, Hillary Clinton has said the Australian approach is “worth considering.” The National Rifle Association has dismissed the policies,
contending that they “robbed Australians of their right to self-defense
and empowered criminals” without reducing violent crime.
The
oft-cited statistic in Australia is a simple one: There have been no
mass killings — defined by experts there as a gunman killing five or
more people besides himself — since the nation significantly tightened
its gun control laws almost 20 years ago.
Mass shootings in Australia were rare anyway. But after a gunman massacred 35 people in the Tasmanian town of Port Arthur
in 1996, a public outcry spurred a national consensus to severely
restrict firearms. The tightened laws, which were standardized across
Australia, are more stringent than those of any state in the United
States, including California.
Pushed
through by John Howard, the conservative prime minister at the time,
the National Firearms Agreement prohibited automatic and semiautomatic
assault rifles and pump shotguns in all but unusual cases. It tightened
licensing rules, established a 28-day waiting period for gun purchases,
created a national gun registry and instituted a temporary buyback
program that removed more than 20 percent of firearms from public
circulation.
Several
of the measures, including waiting periods and background checks, have
been adopted piecemeal by different states in America. But the United
States has never tried a national gun buyback program; in Australia,
that required raising taxes. And the United States has never been able
to do what Mr. Howard did: forge a broad agreement on a sweeping set of
gun control measures that applies to the entire nation.
A test of those laws came in December 2014, when a gunman who had expressed sympathy for Islamic extremism took hostages in a cafe in Sydney. The assailant, Man Haron Monis, brandished a sawed-off pump action shotgun that he had obtained illegally.
An
inquest said the gun may have been in circulation before pump action
shotguns were essentially banned in 1996 and was never confiscated in
the buyback. According to the inquest, his shells were 15 to 20 years
old.
During
the 17-hour siege of the cafe, Mr. Monis fired several times, once into
a wall, before killing the cafe manager. At that point, the police
stormed in, killing the gunman and another hostage in the crossfire.
It is impossible to say whether gun restrictions saved lives in the siege, but some politicians say they believe so.
“It
is the ready availability of weapons, particularly those that are
automatic or semiautomatic, that increases the likelihood that people in
a moment of madness, or malice, or hatred, will kill a lot of people,”
Mr. Howard said in October, after a man opened fire on a community college campus in Oregon, killing nine.
Measuring
the broad effectiveness of Australia’s gun control laws is complicated.
Australians themselves continue to debate their impact, and some have
sought to loosen restrictions on gun ownership.
Critics
have argued that gun violence was falling in Australia before 1996 and
would have continued to fall even without the gun control measures.
Others have suggested that even as gun-related deaths fell, people in
Australia may have resorted to using other weapons to kill.
To
assess these claims, scholars have examined not just mass shootings,
but also all intentional deaths caused by firearms, adjusting for
population growth.
Total
intentional gun deaths fell by half in the decade after the 1996
restrictions were put in place, even as Australia’s population grew
nearly 14 percent. The rate of gun suicides per 100,000 people dropped
65 percent from 1995 to 2006, and the rate of gun homicides fell 59
percent, according to a 2010 study by Andrew Leigh of Australian National University and Christine Neill of Wilfrid Laurier University.
When
the data in that study is updated to include the latest figures from
the Australian Bureau of Statistics, as well as the numbers going back
to 1968, several facts emerge.
First,
the rates of intentional firearm deaths were substantially higher in
the 28 years before the gun control measures were adopted in 1996 than
in the 17 years after. How much of that decline can be attributed to the
new policies can be debated, but the difference is clear.
Second,
the initial drop in firearm deaths in the decade after the 1996
restrictions were enacted appears to have leveled off. In 2013, the most
recent year for which figures are available, there were 200 gun-related
homicides and suicides, for a rate of 0.87 deaths per 100,000
residents. That is up slightly from the low in 2005, when 0.82 deaths
per 100,000 residents were recorded, but still far below the 2.71 deaths
per 100,000 residents in 1996.
The
data confirms that gun deaths were already falling before the National
Firearms Agreement. The rate of intentional gun deaths fell about 33
percent from 1986 to 1996. The decline accelerated, however, under the
new gun control measures, with the rate dropping about 60 percent from
1996 to 2006.
The
impact of the gun laws is difficult to assess partly because of the low
rates of intentional firearms deaths in Australia. Gun-related homicide
rates are even lower, because suicides make up about 80 percent of all
gun deaths. Looking at gun-related suicides and homicides separately
shows similar trends — higher rates of both before 1996 than after,
declines in the decade before 1996 but sharper declines in the decade
after, and a leveling off in recent years.
Mr.
Leigh and Ms. Neill tried to measure the effect of the 1996 measures
across Australian states and territories to see whether different levels
of gun confiscation led to different results. They found that the
places where the most guns were removed from public circulation also
experienced the largest drops in intentional gun deaths.
The impact of the buyback appeared more pronounced on suicides.
“Firearm
suicides fell more in states that had more guns bought back than in
states with fewer guns bought back,” Ms. Neill said in an email.
“Firearm homicides also fell more in states with more guns bought back,
but the effect was smaller than for firearm suicides.”
The
data also indicates that overall homicide and suicide rates fell in the
decade after 1996, meaning Australians did not respond to the gun
control measures by killing one another or themselves using other
weapons at higher rates.
Over
all, Mr. Leigh and Ms. Neill estimate that at least 200 lives are saved
annually because of Australia’s gun buyback program.
The
introduction to the Australian market this year of a shotgun that
allows rapid fire using a lever action rekindled debate over the
restrictions, with some enthusiasts arguing that they felt cheated out
of owning a gun. The government banned a version of the shotgun that
holds seven rounds but approved a five-round version. There are also
efforts to lower the legal age of supervised shooters in Tasmania, to 15
from 16.
Senator
David Leyonhjelm, who supports easing gun controls, said Australia
resembled Britain, Canada and New Zealand, where mass shootings are
infrequent. “America is an outlier,” he said. “We are not like America.”
In
the 18 years before the Port Arthur massacre, there were 12 mass
shootings in Australia, according to a 2006 study in the journal Injury
Prevention. The deadliest shooting since 1996 occurred last year, when a
farmer in New South Wales fatally shot his wife and three children
before killing himself.
Tasmania’s
former premier, Tony Rundle, said reaching the 1996 agreement was
difficult and warned against revising it. “I told people all over the
country, in town hall meetings, we don’t want to go down the path that
America has traveled,” said Mr. Rundle, who is now retired. “Eroding
those laws now, chipping away at the edges, would be a folly.”
Mr.
Howard, the prime minister who pushed through the measures, agreed.
“There should be no relaxation, complacency or compromise,” he said in
an interview. “That is the view of people all around Australia.”
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