Saturday, November 10, 2012

Hinasson Botasion Siha

I've been wanting to write up some of my thoughts on i manggana' yan i manmapedde' in Election 2012 for Guam, but haven't gotten around to it yet. In the meantime, check out some of Ron McNinch's thoughts. He makes some good points, especially in terms of why certain candidates lost. I'm hoping to find some time this weekend since I also need to finalize my Guam Political Sign Awards for 2012. 

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"Exit Poll and Additional Notes on the 2012 'Sniper' Election"
 Dr. Ron McNinch
Letter to the Editor
Marianas Variety
11/08/12

OUR STUDENT exit poll showed 13 out of the 15 elected and had an overall placement rank of +/- 3.15 ranks for the top 20 places and a +/- 2.5 rank for the top 15. In general, both senators named Judi dropped nine places due to limiting voting effects. Judi Won Pat dropped from 1st to 10th and Judi Guthertz dropped from 10th to 19th. Exit polls are samples of voting behavior and are unlikely to detect bullet voting. In two-person or head-to-head races, bullet voting does not work.

There are a few surprises in this election. Mike San Nicolas, a Democrat newcomer, had a very good finish at fifth place. With a strong drop in the two Judi Democrats mentioned, and a strong increase for Duenas (+6) and Tony Ada (+7), this is indicative of about 2,000 more Republicans than Democrats voting only in their column for 7-9 Republicans. This allowed for the strong drop in the Judis (-9), Ben (-5), and Rory (-5) and a strong increase in Aline (+3), Tony Ada (+7), Brant (+3) and Duenas (+6).

Both sides engage in this limited voting practice, it was just more pronounced in this election on the Republican side. On normal indicators, the highest vote-getter was Dennis Rodriguez with 61 percent, the normal limit is about 60 percent. Sen. Respicio received 43 percent and the lower limit is about 40 percent. The parameters for this race were fairly normal.

Additional comments on the fallen incumbents: All are good people, this is just commentary.

Bullet voting was enhanced by several political realities:

Mana Taijeron: No question the Untalan School drama lost this race for her. (Her husband yelled at the school staff on Halloween following a bullying incident.) She was very steady and stable leading into the election. She would have finished probably at 9th to 12th on average.

Adolpho Palacios: He left a pending traffic ticket open. He was accused of driving off after hitting a car in a parking lot. Instead of dealing with it directly, he left it up to voters to discuss. He also angered firemen and police in September over pay concerns. These groups were his base.

Sam Mabini: She overplayed her regional ties and alienated her general base. She emphasized her family's home island too much and this split her support base in the Filipino community.

Judi Guthertz: Instead of backing away from military entanglements in this last term, Guthertz's staff kept reminding the public of these items to her detriment. She should have assigned the military buildup committee to another senator and cooled off on this issue. On a side note, Guthertz is very pro-U.S. and pro-military, but she was defined by her self-inflicted press releases.

On a final note, the public likes new faces and this election allowed four fairly young newcomers in their 30s to 40s to enter the legislature. Tommy Morrison, Mike Limtiaco, Brant McCreadie and Mike San Nicolas are a group of fresh young faces. Hopefully, the legislature won’t jade them too quickly.

Ron McNinch, 
Guam

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